April - 2017

CLEAR INVESTMENT RESEARCH, LLC

FIXED INCOME UPDATE - INTEREST RATE OVERVIEW

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to levels not seen since November 2016 when markets were still pensive about the outcome of the presidential election. The retreat of Treasury bond yields may signal that the strong asset flows into equities may be easing up. Comments by Federal Reserve members in February signaled a solidifying stance for a rate hike as soon as March. Fed member William Dudley cited “sturdy job gains, increase in inflation, and rising optimism among business o

CONSUMER CREDIT CARD DEBT HITS $1 TRILLION - CONSUMER FINANCE

CONSUMER CREDIT CARD DEBT HITS $1 TRILLION - CONSUMER FINANCE

As consumer confidence has risen over the past couple of years, so has the appeal to hold debt. Federal Reserve data shows that U.S. consumers now have over $1 trillion on credit cards alone, up 6.2% from a year ago, and is currently the highest amount of consumer credit card debt since January 2009. The recent data makes credit card debt the third largest consumer lending category in the industry following auto loans and student loans. Two variables that economists look at c

A BRIEF HISTORY OF TAX CUTS - HISTORICAL NOTE

A BRIEF HISTORY OF TAX CUTS - HISTORICAL NOTE

For nearly a hundred years, tax cuts have been a centerpiece of political strife among politicians, with both parties at times lobbying for lower tax rates. An accepted belief has been that lower taxes widen the Federal deficit and provide no economic expansion. Contrary to this belief, prior tax cuts enacted by various presidential administrations actually yielded economic growth and higher revenues for the Federal Government. During the 1920’s, tax rates were lowered from o

45% OF AMERICANS PAY NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX - FISCAL POLICY

Disparity of income has been a preponderate subject for politicians and activist groups for some time, yet in the end, it’s those that earn the higher incomes that pay for most taxes. An estimated 77.5 million Americans, identified as households, pay no federal income tax. The non-partisan, non-profit tax group known as The Tax Policy Center released income tax data it analyzed for 2015 and found that nearly half, about 45.3% of American households, paid no federal income tax

AUTO SALES MAY HAVE PEAKED - INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

AUTO SALES MAY HAVE PEAKED - INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Low interest rates and aggressive leasing programs have made some expensive cars affordable. Rather than struggling to get approved for a new home loan or refinance, Americans have instead financed cars, where getting a loan approval has been easier. The abundance of attractive loans has helped elevate auto sales throughout the country over the past few years. Recent auto sales have been slowing across the country as dealer incentives have become less effective. The end of 20

BANKS SHIFT FOCUS FROM TRADING TO HIGHER RATES - BANKING SECTOR FOCUS

BANKS SHIFT FOCUS FROM TRADING TO HIGHER RATES - BANKING SECTOR FOCUS

Banks produce revenue a variety of ways, from familiar fees on checking and savings accounts to sophisticated trading of stocks. A traditional model of bank revenue for decades has been the ability to charge customers higher rates than what the cost of funds are. The challenge recently has been the ultra low interest rate environment that has limited banks’ ability to charge more on loans. Data released this past quarter by the St. Louis Federal Reserve reveals that the “net

BREXIT IS FINALLY UNDERWAY - EURO REGION UPDATE

BREXIT IS FINALLY UNDERWAY - EURO REGION UPDATE

Ever since British voters decided to have Britain exit the European Union (EU) in June 2016, the process and timeline of the exit have been in question. This past month, British Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 which begins a two-year period of negotiations with the EU on exiting the union and establishing remedial trade arrangements with applicable countries. Should negotiations not be completed within the two-year period, then Britain would be required to fol

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ON THE RISE - CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ON THE RISE - CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Two key measures of consumer confidence soared to levels not seen since 2000, helping to propel equities higher towards the end of the first quarter. Since consumer expenditures make up nearly 70% of Gross Domestic Production (GDP),growing confidence among consumers is viewed optimistically by economists. A non-profit research group, The Conference Board, compiles and releases its Consumer Confidence Index each month, an indicator of consumer sentiment. In its most recent rel

CORPORATE AFTER TAX PROFITS JUMP - CORPORATE FINANCE

CORPORATE AFTER TAX PROFITS JUMP - CORPORATE FINANCE

A measure released by the Commerce Department showed that after-tax corporate profits grew over 22% in the fourth quarter versus the same quarter in 2015. The jump in profits was the single largest increase in nearly five years, deemed optimistic by economists and analysts. As the broader economy grew at an increased pace in the fourth quarter of 2016, various sectors and industries may see either a continuance or slowdown depending on any regulatory and economic shifts. Over

GENEROUS FIRST QUARTER - DOMESTIC EQUITY UPDATE

The first quarter saw all of the major equity indices end positive, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index ending up 4.6%, the S&P 500 Index returned 5.5%, and the Nasdaq ended the quarter with a 9.8% gain. The S&P 500 index peaked on March 1st, ending lower at quarter end yet still up for the quarter as its sixth straight positive quarter. Equity markets reversed an upward trend in place since the election, as the inability for House Republicans to agree on a revised healthcare

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